Midterm Changes in the House but not the Senate

Like the Olympics, midterm elections happen every two years but alternate between winter and summer sports.  The midterms elect new members of Congress – not a new president.  They happen in the middle of the president’s four-year term of office.  In 2020, the balance of power swung over the Democrat party with the election of President Joe Biden, a 50-50 split in the Senate, and a continued majority in the House of Representatives.  The President’s agenda is subject to approval by Congress so more or less agreement or compromise is needed based on who is in office.

The Constitution established the number of years to which government officials hold their elected positions: the president is elected to a four-year term limited to two terms; senators (two per state) are elected for six-year terms and representatives (based on the population of the state) are elected to two-year terms.  That means every midterm election, or the midpoint of a presidential term, all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election.  This makes it possible for the control of the House to change parties in the middle of a president’s term of office and this change in control can check the current president’s leadership.  

Often midterm election turnout is lower than a presidential election, but lots of state and local elections happen on the same day.  Besides U.S. House representatives and one-third of U.S. senators, the midterm election votes on governors (who are also limited to two terms), state legislature officers, local public offices and citizen initiatives.  And, voter turnout in the U.S. has been high in recent years, exceeding 2018 turnout in several states including Arkansas, Hawaii, Arizona, South Dakota, Pennsylvania and Michigan. 

Though the results of the election are fairly clear right away, we are often left waiting on a few states who take longer to count votes or hold runoff elections. Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia were the closest races for senator this election.  Former President Trump also continued to play his hand at politics by endorsing various candidates.  One of the senators in Pennsylvania, a Republican, retired leaving an open seat for election.  The Democrat candidate and previously the Lieutenant Governor, John Fetterman was elected by 51.2% of votes.  He ran against Dr. Oz, who was endorsed by Trump, despite not being able to campaign for most of the race.  Fetterman had a stroke the same night that he won the primary, making his first appearance for the election debates.   Arizona and Nevada were also both close races for the open senate seats this midterm.  Mark Kelly (D) was elected by 51.4% and Catherine Cortez Masto (D) was elected by 48.9% winning by just a little more than 1,000 votes. 

So, the Democrat party has retained control of the Senate with 48 Democrats and 2 independent senators (Bernie Sanders and Angus King) who caucus with the Democrats.  If Georgia voted by simple majority, they would have already confirmed the re-election of Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) who had 49.4% of the votes and former NFL player Herschel Walker who had 48.5%.  Though a fairly Republican state, Warnock is also deeply religious.  During his service as Senator, he has faithfully traveled back to Georgia every weekend to deliver a weekly sermon in his local congregation.  Georgia, however, requires a clear majority (more than 50%) and so will have a run-off election in December between the top two candidates.  Still, even if Georgia elects their Republican candidate, the Vice President, currently Kamala Harris (D) has the tie breaking vote in the Senate.